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<p align="center"><strong><font size="4">刺激人们神经的话题 - 人民币升值</font></strong></p>
<p align="center"><font size="2"><a href="http://www.My6699.com">雅仕网</a>  2011年10月13日  来源：汪 翔</font></p>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff"><strong><span style="font-size: smaller">最近人民币升值话题不断, 对有现钱的大老们心底高兴. 可中国政府高兴吗 </span></strong></span></p>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff"><strong><span style="font-size: smaller">汪 翔的<人民币大升值与中国的一流化之路>的话题很刺激人们神经, 会刺激到你吗  请看他的论调:</span></strong></span></p>
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<p><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin"><font face="Times New Roman">            </font>最近，关于人民币是不是被低估，人民币是不是该快速大升值，讨论的热火朝天。普通人聊聊，胡言乱语，发发怨气，似乎也不是什么坏事。但是，如果是对于国家政策有影响力，对于民众思维有导向标作用的专家和学者，在那里胡言乱语，可就不是国家的什么福分了。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">下面附录的一篇文章，估计有很强的代表性，代表着国内大家、学者的思考逻辑和自以为是，如果中国的政府部门，真的按照这种思考逻辑来做经济和政治决策，我看，中国的再次败落，也将是为时不远的了。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">我们来看看，该文章的核心要点到底意味着什么。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"> </p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">其一，如果人民币大升值，中国人在美国佬那里的存款，就会更有价值！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">我的答案：可能是，也可能不是。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">如果人民币的大升值是在一夜之间完成，并且，中国政府有控制国内人民的那种“权威”来控制美国人民的行动，那么，这个结论是对的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">可惜，这些如果，几乎都不成立！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">人民币不可能是在一夜之间升值这么快。如果是，中国的经济就会立马崩溃，人民就此会闹革命。那样一来，一个连政权都没有能力保证稳定的国家，又谈何一流化？！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">如果不是在一夜之间升值，那么，升值过程中获得最大利益的，很可能就不是被捆住手脚的中国民众，而是美国为主流的投机资本和他们的老板们。最终，得益最大的，还是美国佬。不同的，只是装钱的袋子有不同的颜色而已，都是属于美国佬的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">再者，中国人可能忘了，在世界市场上，谁谁拥有印钞机来着？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">中国政府可以用印钞机来对付自己的国民，让自己致富，那么，美国政府就不能够吗？美国佬就这么弱智吗？中国政府对付的，是生活在井底的中国民众，而美国政府对付的，不仅有呆在井底的，还有可以爬到井上的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">如果还是不懂这个道理，就去读读，我当年鹦鹉学舌，写的那本著作：《理性预期宏观经济学》（中国人民大学出版社，</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt">1988</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: simsun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年版）。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">民众是有预期能力的，而且，这种预期还是理性的。这种理性的预期，既可以改变民众的行为，也可以最终改变政策的实际效果。而这种效果，又很可能与政策主导者的所想和所求，非常的不同！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">其二，人民币大升值，就会被世界人民热捧吗？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">诸位可能生活在红色下面时间久了，犯了色盲症！就此忘记或者不明白，经济的最终是政治，政治的最终是经济。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">但是，在这个相互纠结的关系之中，谁决定长远？谁决定短期？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">作为政治实体的国家，更看重的是短期还是长期？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">对于中国目前的政治体制，又真的有几个国家的政府，敢长期相信他？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">我一直觉得，美国最害怕的，实际上并不是中国的暂时富有。因为，在集权政体下的暂时富有，是无法长期持续的。美国政府对于中国政体民主化的害怕，甚至超过了中国政府内部某些人，发自内心深处的害怕！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">民主政体和集权的最大区别，是政治稳定性和人们对于政府的长期可信性！如果是在个人层面，就是一个人的道德、诚实和可信度上的差别。<b>国家如个人</b>，我一直这么相信！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">其三，中国人的富有，到底表现在哪些方面？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">如果说，一个国家的富有，主要是通过数字的暂时膨胀来实现的话，那么，在泡沫破裂之后会是什么样子，则可能是他人更为关心和在意的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">国家如家庭</span></b></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">，国家的统治者和主导者，也是普通的经济人！我坚信布坎南的这种理念。也是我当初对“公共选择理论”那么热心的真实原因。虽然张五常先生在对我的那本《公共选择理论导论》（上海人民出版社，</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt">1994</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: simsun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年版）小册子评价时说过：一本半天就可以读完，其后，就是让你对民主政治彻底失望的书。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">回到正题：中国的富有，是不是表现在房价的大幅上涨？是不是表现在通过地方政府的大量借款（银行贷款和土地财政的款项），“拉动”的地方经济“成长”？是不是建立在银行的大量放贷上？是不是建立在物价的飞涨上？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">那么，一旦这些膨胀消失了，回到正常和原点，结果会是什么？再者，这些地方政府和银行“拉动”的经济成长，是不是就是没有实质性效率的金钱大“挥霍”？是不是就是没有经过核算的纸面账户？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">如果深入具体的计算一下，最终，你真的能够发现是有利润——价值增值——的折腾吗？如果不是，如果只是暂时的表面文章——政绩工程，如果为此而付出的是大量的财富浪费甚至是摧毁，那么，中国的经济实力，又能从哪里表现出来呢？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">难道是靠唱红歌？读马列？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">国家如企业</span></b></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">！企业投资需要的是实实在在的利润回报。如果大量的“基础”建设投资，最终的回报连折旧都赚不回来，这样的企业，结果除了破产之外，还能有其他的更好出路吗？中国以国营企业为主，这些企业胡乱折腾之后，就是国家买单，快活的全部烂账一笔购销。那么，这种大方背后，真正的买单人又到底是谁呢？这种长期的被迫买单和浪费行为，最终又意味着什么呢？是不是就是一个国家的败落，而非富强？！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">其四，中国的企业，在金融危机之后，真的学会了调整经营策略吗？！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">对于中国企业的经营风格和“成功”秘密，我琢磨了很久，最终能够感觉到的，似乎也只有一个模式：打通关节，获得垄断地位，借此获得垄断利润！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">这种理解，让我最终明白了，为什么中国企业在海外很难成功经营的原因所在！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">海外的企业，特别是在美国本土成功经营的企业，靠的是什么？即使是像微软那样的，有幸获得垄断利润的公司，也是通过某种非政府支持的因素来实现的。而在中国，又有几家公司，不是因为获得地方和中央政府的特殊支持，和由于这种支持而获得的垄断权力，来获得垄断经营地位的？！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">我认识一些在国内做得不错的私营“企业家”，自己也曾经尝试过在国内有所发展。但是，最终我才在付出了巨大代价之后，悟出了这样的道理：在中国，你想赚钱，你必须先付出人格和尊严。你必须乐意，为了经济上的成功，和政府部门的衙门们“合作”。否则，你基本上就是寸步难行。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">当初，为了几天的签证延期，我在武汉还得为，在美国看来，不必要的一道小程序，而付出好几千元人民币的代价——明目张胆的索贿，而且，还是在有朋友关系的情况下！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">在美国经营了企业十多年，也没有花过一次这样的冤枉钱。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">在中国那种环境培养出来的企业家，会在一个基本上靠实力竞争的市场经济大环境下取胜吗？我看，很难，如果不是不可能的话。（关于美国企业家的经营能力，我在那本《拐点：世界金融巨头大败局》（长江文艺出版社，</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt">2010</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: simsun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">年版）里有比较多的分析）</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">一句话，对于多数的中国企业来说，基本上没有在海外竞争环境下生存下来的能力！因为，这种环境，对于他们，太陌生，太不可思议！（看看我那篇</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><a href="http://blog.creaders.net/laowang/user_blog_diary.php did=92355"><font size="2"><font color="#000000"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">“</span><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun">经商日记（</span></b><b><span>1</span></b><b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun">）：经营的逻辑与兰世立的“智慧”</span></b><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">”</span></font></font></a></span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: simsun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">）</span></span><span lang="ZH-CN"> </span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">一个没有真正企业家的国度，靠什么在海外市场和人一争高下？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">靠唱红歌不成？愚昧！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">其五，中国和日本，可比吗？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">中国人最喜欢比较，而最好比较的，就是自己的邻居日本了。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">我觉得，数字很能说明问题，但是，数字却永远不能说明实质性的问题。特别是，在这种数字本身就有很大的不可比性时。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">用数字比较，来说明日本当年怎么样，中国今后会和应该怎么样，我觉得，太自以为是。中国和美国对垒，相对于当年日本和美国的对垒，有不少的劣势，同时，也有不少的优势。最终，决定胜败的，还是中国人自己和中国政府自己。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">正如当年中国和日本的关系一样。中国人老是在责怪日本人的野蛮和不为自己野蛮行为的反省，但是，在为此愤愤不平的时候，我们为什么不好好思考一下，当年为什么放着那么多曾经拥有的财富，不让自己的国民和国家先富强起来呢？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">古人云：篱笆扎得紧，野狗钻不进。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">狐狸喜欢吃鸡，这种本性是改变不了的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">就日本人的生存环境和条件，期望占领中国国土，过好点日子，学学当年中国历史上一个个朝代更替，自己当主人来演绎一次，似乎也不是没有理由的。一旦日本国再次获得机会，我相信，他们还会再次做类似的尝试。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">所以，如果中国人不自己强大，却老是梦想着，靠对方的理智和道德修养，靠他人的仁慈，来确保自己不受欺凌的地位，我看，是做不到的。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">这就和猫一样，如果你幸运，主人喜爱你，你就能够过上好日子。否则，就是被人随意处置，甚至成为他人的盘中餐。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">而且，国家的强大，最主要的，恐怕还不是军事上的强大，而是民心的凝聚力，是民众对政府和权威机构的信赖和支持。什么时候，中国政府能够做到这点？什么时候，中国的政治家和权贵们，不需要那么热情满怀地，如同过江之鲤，将自己的财富和子女转移到海外才会放心？什么时候，中国的政治家和企业家们，能够在一个不需要每夜做噩梦的环境下，提心吊胆地过日子？</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">那时候，中国才真正是世界上最强大的国度，才是真正的一流。</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNoSpacing" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0.5in"><span class="apple-style-span"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin">在我们的有生之年，能够看到这一天吗？我有点悲观！</span></span><span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size: 12pt"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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