人民幣將威脅美元地位？

人民幣將威脅美元地位？ <a href="http://www.My6699.com">雅仕网</a>  2011年11月17日  来源：金融時報 YLD 推荐   人民幣將威脅美元地位？ China review commission 英國《金融時報》 <a target="_blank" href="http://big5.ftchinese.com/search/%E8%89%BE%E4%BC%A6%E2%80%A2%E8%B4%9D%E8%92%82/relative_byline">艾倫•貝蒂</a>華盛頓報道 China’s renminbi could pose a threat to the international dominance of the US dollar within a decade, according to an independent commission set up by the US Congress. 美國國會成立的一個獨立委員會表示，十年之內人民幣可能對美元在國際上的主導地位構成威脅。 The annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, released on Wednesday, said Beijing’s attempts to spread international use of its currency were succeeding in broadening its reach. 美中經濟與安全評估委員會(US-China Economic and Security Review Commission)周三發布的年報稱，北京方面推動人民幣國際化的努力，正在成功拓展人民幣的地盤。 “[I]t no longer seems inconceivable that the RMB could mount a challenge to the dollar, perhaps within the next five to 10 years,” said the commission, chaired by William Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a business group. “有一件事不再不可想象，那就是人民幣可能對美元構成挑戰，也許就在未來5至10年內，”由威廉•賴因施(William Reinsch)擔任主席的該委員會表示。賴因施也是商業團體美國對外貿易理事會(NFTC)主席。 “Chinese financial authorities are laying the groundwork for these ambitions via a series of bilateral arrangements with foreign companies and financial centres”. “中國金融主管部門通過與外國企業和金融中心建立一系列雙邊安排，正為這方面的雄心奠定基礎。”    The report also said that China was continuing to intervene heavily in its domestic economy through a combination of subsidies and protections to state-owned enterprises, rules on forced transfer of technology from foreign investors and limiting government procurement to Chinese companies – the so-called “indigenous innovation” policy. 報告同時稱，中國正繼續大舉乾預國內經濟，採用的手段包括：向國有企業提供補貼和保護，迫使外國投資者轉讓技術的規則，以及只對中國企業開放政府採購（即所謂的“自主創新”政策）。 “Chinese officials [including President Hu Jintao] have pledged to modify China’s indigenous innovation policy in response to protests from US business leaders and top officials,” the report said. “These promises have not been implemented at the local and provincial levels, however.” “針對美國商界領袖和高官的抗議，中國官員（包括國家主席胡錦濤）曾承諾修訂中國的自主創新政策，”報告表示。“不過，這些承諾仍未在地方和省級層面得到兌現。” Over the past few years, Beijing has gradually relaxed controls on the use of the renminbi in international transactions, using Hong Kong as a test-bed for experimentation. 近年來，北京方面逐漸放鬆了對人民幣用於國際交易的管制，並在香港進行相關試點。 There remain considerable controls on cross-border capital flows, together with continued massive official intervention in foreign exchange markets to hold down the renminbi. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank whose estimates of currency undervaluation are frequently cited as authoritative on Capitol Hill, this week said that the renminbi remained undervalued against its trading partners by only 11 per cent compared with 16 per cent in April, thanks to modest appreciation and higher inflation in China.   中國官方仍對跨境資本流動實施大量管制，同時繼續大規模乾預匯市、以壓低人民幣匯率。彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)對匯率低估幅度的估算，經常作為權威數據被美國國會引用。這家智庫本周表示，由於人民幣小幅升值和中國通脹率上升，目前人民幣相對於中國主要貿易夥伴貨幣的低估幅度只有11%，低於今年4月份時的16%。   But the institute said that the Chinese currency was still 24 per cent undervalued against the US dollar based on estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) – the currency values that would return economies roughly to current account balance if they were producing around their normal capacity. 但該研究所表示，按基本均衡匯率(FEER)——經濟體正常產出的情況下足以讓經濟體恢復經常賬戶大致平衡的貨幣價值——估算，人民幣相對於美元仍低估24%。 Senior US administration officials, including Ron Kirk, US trade representative, and John Bryson, commerce secretary, travel to China this weekend for the annual joint commission on commerce and trade, the main forum for bilateral negotiations on the subjects between the two governments. China has promised before the end of the year to make a revised offer to join the government procurement agreement (GPA), a pact within the World Trade Organisation to open public contracts to international tender.   奧巴馬政府高級官員，包括美國貿易代表羅恩•柯克(Ron Kirk)和商務部長約翰•布賴森(John Bryson)，本周末將前往中國出席美中商貿聯委會(JCCT)會議，這是兩國政府就相關事務舉行雙邊談判的主要論壇。中國已承諾在年底前提交經過修訂的《政府採購協定》(GPA)加入申請，這是世界貿易組織(WTO)內部的一個協定，旨在讓公共部門合同接受國際投標。   The issue of the Chinese currency has risen back towards the top of the political agenda in Washington. In October the US Senate passed a bill that would allow the US to impose retaliatory tariffs on imports from China in accordance with estimates of currency misalignment. But the Republican leadership of the House of Representatives, which opposes the measure, has so far resisted bringing a similar bill to a vote.   在華盛頓，人民幣問題已再度成為政治議程上最重要的議題。10月份，美國參議院通過一項法案，允許美國根據估算的匯率低估幅度，對中國輸美商品徵收報復性關稅。但在眾議院，反對這項措施的共和黨領導層迄今拒絕讓類似法案進入投票表決程序。     <o:p> </o:p>

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