英国《金融时报》 詹姆斯•麦金托什

It is impossible to stop analysts and investors churning out improbably precise 12-month forecasts. Short View prefers to look at what people are not predicting. Here’s five possible surprises that are not priced in: 要想让分析师和投资者别再“粗制滥造”出大量不靠谱的2012年预测，大概是不可能的。《短线观点》(Short View)栏目更愿意关注那些人们没在预测的可能情形。以下是五个未体现在人们预期中、但可能出人意料成为现实的情形：

● Europe escapes with only a mild recession. This would give the eurozone a chance to grow its way out of crisis, support shares and hurt bonds of safe countries. Rising German business confidence gave a hint this week that this view is not completely daft. ● 欧洲幸免于难，只遭受到温和衰退。这将给欧元区带来一个通过增长来走出危机的机会，会对股市形成支撑，会损害安全国家的国债。本周数据显示德国企业的信心正不断增强，这暗示出，上述观点并非痴人说梦。

● The US election has endless capacity to surprise. Still, a president and Congress from the same party with a clear mandate to cut the budget deficit would be a shock. Whether through Democrats raising taxes or Republicans cutting spending, signs that the US will one day have a balanced budget should help the dollar. ● 美国大选制造意外的潜力是无穷的。尽管如此，如果总统宝座和国会两院最终都由同一党派掌控、且获得明确授权来削减预算赤字，还是会令人大感意外。无论是通过民主党人的增税计划，还是通过共和党人的减支计划，美国有朝一日都将实现预算平衡。这种迹象应该会提振美元。

● A Chinese hard landing would be a disaster. The consensus sees plenty of scope to ease monetary policy, cushioning the slowdown and helping the economy land gently. Chinese equities, this week at their lowest since March 2009, suggest more domestic pessimism. ● 中国经济如果硬着陆，将成为一场灾难。人们普遍认为，中国在放松货币政策方面有很大余地，可为经济减速提供缓冲，帮助实现软着陆。但中国股市本周触及2009年3月以来的最低水平，这表明中国国内的悲观情绪在增长。

● Europe could provide more good news. As Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, points out, the cloud of austerity might have a silver lining in the form of supply side reform. If the new Italian and Spanish governments push through their own Thatcherite revolutions, their recovery from the looming recession could be far faster than expected. ● 欧洲会带来更多好消息。正如高盛资产管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事长吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)所指出的，供给面改革也许会成为财政紧缩这朵“乌云”的“银边”。如果意大利和西班牙的新政府能各自推进它们自己的撒切尔式改革，它们走出这场隐约可见的衰退的速度将远比人们想象的快。

● The Middle East has not been so unstable since 1979’s Iranian revolution. The Arab spring has left Syria in conflict and a troubled legacy in Egypt, and could upset the region’s remaining absolute monarchs. Israel is edgy about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Turkey’s economy is deeply unstable; its financing problems have left the lira at record lows against the dollar. Combine that with a new desire to play peacemaker, and investors should be watching Turkey, too. ● 自1979年伊朗革命之后，中东地区还从未如此的不稳定。“阿拉伯之春”不仅使叙利亚深陷冲突，给埃及留下了一份麻烦不断的遗产，还将使该地区余下的专制君主们心神不宁。以色列对伊朗的核野心感到不安。土耳其的经济处于剧烈动荡之中，其财政问题令里拉兑美元汇率跌至创纪录低位。有鉴于此，再加上土耳其想充当调解人的新意愿，投资者理应对该国的形势也保持一定警惕。